Supply chain screening industry: the biggest enemy of second-hand e-commerce is itself

In recent years, all kinds of e-commerce in China have been turbulent.

On the one hand, the characteristics of the three e-commerce platforms, Ali, Jingdong and Pinduoduo, are becoming more and more strong, and the past offensive and defensive war that went deep into the hinterland has also become a separate mountain.

On the other hand, Meituan, Didi, Byte Beat, Kwai and other companies have grown into towering trees. Industries that still have the value of tuyere dividends have become increasingly scarce.

Second hand e-commerce is one of the few trillion level industries.

What is the logic behind China's e-commerce pattern?

E-commerce is a continuous outlet of the Internet industry.

From 2015 to 2020, the trading scale of China's e-commerce market soared from 16.4 trillion yuan to 34.81 trillion yuan. Taking Ayibaba as an example, it has achieved a great leap forward in revenue in five years, from 96.2 billion yuan in fiscal year 2015 to 557.8 billion yuan in 2020.

Even in such a large industry, only one giant can emerge in each mode.

Ali mainly focuses on C2C and B2C, while JD is a self operated B2C and logistics company. They represent the three biggest opportunities for new product e-commerce. Others, such as Suning, where members gather online and offline, Dangdang in the book market, Vipshop in the long tail market, are only half an opportunity, and the model is not clear.

It can be seen that only one giant can run out of each mode.

Of course, the difference between models is only a surface, behind which is the supply chain problem. In the process of development, different supply chain paths have resulted in different scales today.

For example, the rise of Ali is based on hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized manufacturing plants in Zhejiang Province. It accumulates from B2B to develop C2C and B2C, builds a complete industrial chain, and then continuously strengthens the platform's operation capability and supervision level to build its own supply chain capability; JD's self operation and 3C are actually developed from a large "online shop" in JD Mall, and therefore learn from Amazon's distribution logistics; Pinduoduo is a group purchase that is customized directly from the factory; Suning gives full play to the ability of traditional supermarket to control the supply of goods, which can be promoted online

It can be seen that China's e-commerce pattern has been determined by the supply chain from the very beginning.

Stone from other mountains can be used to attack jade.

According to intelligent research consulting data, in 2019, the transaction scale of China's second-hand e-commerce industry was 259.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 53.21%. It is estimated that in 2020, the transaction scale of China's second-hand e-commerce industry will reach 374.55 billion yuan, and the number of users will reach 182 million, maintaining a rapid growth.

The essence of second-hand e-commerce is an extension of new product e-commerce. In such a market with a trillion scale, the next giant is bound to emerge.

However, compared with Xinpin E-commerce, it is still very young. In general, the whole industry is in a "3+N" state, that is, the three pillars of idle fish, transfer and recycling, and the rest are small and medium-sized vertical platforms such as get things, hummingbirds, temple storehouses, hunting fun, enjoying things, Confucius old book website, recycling treasure, catch more fish, and old book street.

However, the model of the whole industry has become mature.

For example, leisure fish mainly focus on C2C trading, and take the community as a supplement to standard trading; At first, C2C was the main model, then it was the C2B2C model of all categories, and then it acquired Liangji to attack the field of second-hand mobile phones; Aishou is mainly engaged in 3C vertical category, focusing on C2B2C mode and combining the advantages of online and offline.

In this case, the second-hand e-commerce industry has ushered in a great opportunity for rapid development.

In September 2020, idle fish announced that GMV exceeded 200 billion yuan in the past year; On the Double 11, the recovery volume of offline stores of AiRecycle increased by 113%, and the business of trade in for new increased by 442% year on year, ranking first in the industry. The combined transaction amount of full category auction payment exceeded 700 million yuan, the transaction volume exceeded 260000, and the transaction volume of mobile phones exceeded 150000.

This shows that in 2020, both Leisure Fish and Love Recycling will break through the online stage and be in a state of continuous expansion. The mode and supply chain have been verified.

But it seems that something has changed in the past.

According to the data of Yiguan Qianfan, the number of monthly live users transferred has dropped by more than 40% within one year, and the number of active users is now less than 20 million; According to the data of Bida, the number of monthly active users transferred in March 2020 was 20.93 million, and the number of those who searched for Liangji was 2.268 million. However, after the combination of transfer and search for Liangji, the number of monthly active users transferred in June 2020 further declined to 9.47 million.

That is to say, in just a few months, more than half of the monthly activity has been lost.

The half life of second-hand e-commerce is given by the supply chain

When the industry is in full swing, as one of the three platforms, it turns against the trend to decline, which is surprising, but reasonable.

As mentioned earlier, the reason for the rise and fall of e-commerce is obviously the difference in models, but in essence, it is the difference in supply chain capabilities.

Whether it is Ali, Jingdong or Pinduoduo, they have encountered numerous powerful competitors on their way to the rise, most of them because they defended the supply chain behind them and then used this advantage to defeat their competitors.

It is typical of the competition between Taobao and eBay. When the war was at its height, Taobao's financial strength and advertising investment were not as good as those of eBay. However, Ali, relying on 1688 to transfuse blood to Taobao, started from the source of goods for the transaction, and actively established a supervision and settlement mechanism to solve the problem of fund trust between both parties to the transaction, winning the key battle with eBay.

The same is true of JD, which has built the strongest defense against Tmall with logistics and services as its moat; Pinduoduo is a direct beneficiary of the supply chain reform, and has always adhered to the C2M model to compress intermediate links to achieve the goal of good quality and low price.

It can be seen that their success is due to the perfection of the supply chain, and they will not be fickle. Even if we want to open up new businesses, we are more inclined to open up a new platform. For example, after Taobao, Tmall is a platform dedicated to B2C.

The password of turning to decline is probably hidden here.

At the beginning of its establishment, it was unable to solve the regulatory problem by turning to compete with idle fish, and was defeated by factors such as fish ponds and Ayi diversion; Later, it turned to full category C2B2C, but the model became more and more important; After the acquisition of Lanliang Mobile in 2020, the focus will be on the mobile phone field, but the whole industry will start to pay attention to second-hand mobile phones at that time

Entrepreneurship is not a family player. Competitors will not give you the opportunity to change your direction. Each change in direction requires different supply chain requirements from the past. It has gone through three different stages in just five years. How to talk about the construction of the supply chain?

Therefore, we have seen that Zhuanzhuan has always followed the traffic buying mode, and has tried to use the traffic of 58 and Tencent in various fields again and again.

However, second-hand goods are a field with very strict requirements on quality inspection and supply. Online traffic can be purchased, but quality cannot be purchased. As a result, money is spent, but the supply chain behind it has not been done.

To take a simple example, when taking the college entrance examination, everyone said that 6-1=0. A single partial subject will cause the whole college entrance examination to fail. This is especially true for second-hand e-commerce. The supply chain is crucial, which is basically equivalent to the exam without a pen.

Moreover, the competitors did not give too many opportunities to turn around.

When moving away from the main battlefield of C2C, the idle fish immediately strengthened their control over the supply chain by means of fish ponds; When moving into the full category of C2B2C, we are faced with small and medium-sized vertical platforms that are excellent at the supply chain end, and products such as Chek have been aborted; When it turned to second-hand mobile phones again, it found that Aishou has been deeply involved in this field for many years. It has established strong quality inspection, grading and distribution capabilities by relying on online and offline scene control.

The supply chain has screened an industry.

NetEase has made a calculation that the valuation in 2019 was 20 billion yuan, and the valuation of Liangji was about 1 billion yuan. By the time Liangji was merged in May this year, the valuation was only 1.8 billion dollars, equivalent to a cut in the bucket.

The reason is that there is no accumulation in the supply chain of second-hand mobile phones, so we should join hands to find smart phones to enter the second-hand e-commerce, which is essentially similar to the new product e-commerce invading the competitor's territory.

Taking the most typical sinking market as an example, Pinduoduo is the hegemon of this territory. Ali and Suning want to seize the share. With regard to its Shenyang products, we ask for money and resources. We gather together to make a profit, Taobao special edition, Suning shop... Who was born with a golden key?

What's the result?

Spending money has never been the key to the success of e-commerce, nor has it been able to build core competence, nor has the effect been satisfactory. The essential reason is that the imitators have not innovated the supply chain under the inherent mode.

As for second-hand e-commerce, it has been attacking second-hand mobile phones with great momentum, but it has not worked hard on the supply chain. It is still just changing the platform and mode, which is still unchanged in essence.

Path dependence is the biggest enemy of the transformation of second-hand e-commerce

The challenger must subvert the original giant from the perspective of the supply chain.

But it is not easy.

Because it is not a slogan, but the details hidden in the operation, which can be perceived by the market and consumers.

For example, Aishou's door-to-door receiving and inspection, cooperation with mobile phone manufacturers and JD Mall, etc., solved the problem of controlling the supply of second-hand goods by accessing the sales scenario of new phones, thus reshaping the industrial chain of second-hand mobile phones, and combined Paipai to obtain the support of JD's ecological resources. Relying on the perfect supply chain capabilities, Aishou became the only second-hand e-commerce business with a vertical category as its head.

These things can be felt by the market and by both buyers and sellers, which is also an important reason for the rapid development of Aishou.

In fact, Zhuanzhuan also realized the problem, repeatedly proposed to strengthen the supply chain, and set up the Purchasing Man at the end of 2019, but it did not stir up too much waves in the industry. It has not yet formed its own characteristics in the second mobile phone field, and built a strong supply chain capability.

This may also be related to path dependence.For example,the strong point of transfer has never been the supply chain.Its parent company,58,is born in the same city as the traffic side.It is best at mergers and acquisitions and resource integration.Whether it is the establishment of the Picker,or the cooperation between Chek and get in shoe inspection,or the later search for a good opportunity,they are all borrowing from other sources,including the outsourcing of offline services,which is a manifestation of contempt for the supply chain capabilities.

However,due to the non-standard nature of second-hand e-commerce,the requirements of second-hand mobile phones on the supply chain are obviously higher than those of new product e-commerce.There are few targets with the strength to improve the second-hand supply chain in this market,and the transfer that can not use external force to strengthen the short board can only rely on itself.

This has resulted in the need to use more traffic resources to compensate for the shortage of the supply chain,that is,the"traffic diversion"that has been hotly discussed in the market.For example,since 2020,we have switched to the"worry free selling"channel of mobile phones directly on the WeChat portal,shifting all the traffic resources of the past"all categories"to the"second-hand mobile phones"category.

This is equivalent to introducing the same volume of water from one cylinder into another cone with the same bottom area and height,which seems to raise the horizontal plane of a used mobile phone,but the volume has not changed.Moreover,such traffic diversion may lead to a lack of afterpower,which is contrary to the ideas needed to build the supply chain.

If we always regard"WeChat Jiugongge"and"Looking for smart phones"as our two core competitiveness in the field of second-hand mobile phones,we will go back if we don't advance in the long run.

Conclusion

2021 is destined to be a year when unicorns are reshaped.

Second hand e-commerce is one of the rare opportunities for the Internet,and also an industry that has been repeatedly verified and broken through the ceiling.

The competition among the three giants is also destined to take the supply chain as an opportunity to make a decisive decision this year.Even if the logic of the rise of new product e-commerce cannot be completely replicated,it will certainly be close.